https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/images/common/default/article-940x600.jpg
FR: Industrial Production
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.8% | -0.7% | -0.9% |
| Year over Year | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Highlights
Industrial performance in September 2025 reflects a modest rebound in manufacturing, in contrast to weakness in construction. Manufacturing output increased by 0.9 percent, while industrial output rose by 0.8 percent, driven by transport equipment, which surged by 5.5 percent, as aerospace production continued to influence sectoral volatility. Smaller gains in machinery and equipment goods (1.2 percent), refined petroleum products (1.2 percent), and food production (0.4 percent) suggest gradually improving demand conditions. However, persistent declines in basic metals, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals indicate ongoing challenges in energy-intensive and supply-chain-sensitive industries.
On an annual basis, manufacturing and industrial output increased by 1.3 per cent, supported by strong growth in transport equipment (11.0 per cent) and refined petroleum activity (6.6 percent), while food manufacturing (minus 2.7 percent) and broader industrial segments continued to lag. This divergence highlights shifting consumption patterns and uneven cost dynamics across sub-sectors.
In contrast, construction output contracted sharply by 1.3 percent over the month, with building activity falling by 5.2 percent. Civil engineering also weakened, reflecting tighter financing conditions and softer investment sentiment.
Finally, downward revisions to August's manufacturing figures suggest that initial estimates may have overstated resilience, reinforcing a narrative of fragile, recovery-paced industrial momentum that is vulnerable to sector-specific pressures.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees orders recovering by 0.2 percent after a decline of 0.7 percent in August.
Definition
Industrial production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Manufacturing is seen as the best guide to underlying developments as some sectors can be very volatile and cause misleadingly large short-term swings in total industrial production.
Description
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. Like the PPI and the orders data, construction is excluded from the data. This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.