| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.1% to 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Year over Year | 0.9% |
Highlights
Led by a strong contribution from trade, third quarter GDP surprised to the upside, gaining 0.5 percent from the second quarter when it grew 0.3 percent. Economists were expecting a 0.2 percent increase in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of an Econoday survey.
Exports grew 2.2 percent in the third quarter, while imports fell 0.4 percent during the quarter. That resulted in net trade contributing 0.9 percent to overall growth during the quarter. Among the sectors, transportation -- primarily aeronautics, exports rose 8.9 percent in the quarter.
The trade results more than offset a minus 0.6 percent contribution from changes in inventories, which reverses a 0.5 percent contribution in the second quarter. Results from other indicators show that companies in the absence of new orders have been working through order backlogs.
On the spending side, consumers remained subdued and cautious with spending up 0.1 percent in the third quarter, the same rate as in the second. Government spending was more robust, rising 0.5 percent in both the second and third quarters.
Overall, the French economy produced 0.8 percent more during the third quarter than the second, led by goods production, up 1.5 percent. Services grew a more subdued 0.2 percent during the quarter.
The results show the French economy is more resilient than expected in the face of US tariffs, and suggest that companies are finding markets other than the US for their goods. Strength in the high-value aeronautics sector is encouraging and could lead to restocking of inventories, giving the manufacturing sector a further boost.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees GDP up 0.2 percent in Q3 from Q2 after a 0.3 percent rise in Q2.