| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -1.0% | -1.1% to -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| Year over Year | 1.2% | 1.1% to 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| HICP - M/M | -1.1% | -1.1% | ||
| HICP - Y/Y | 1.1% | 1.1% |
Highlights
In September 2025, the consumer price index (CPI) in France declined by 1.0 percent month-over-month due mainly to a sharp seasonal drop in services, particularly accommodation and transport, as summer demand tapered. However, on an annual basis, inflation edged up to 1.2 percent from 0.9 percent in August, suggesting persistent underlying price pressures. Services were the main driver of this rise, with costs increasing by 2.4 percent year-over-year, supported by higher health, cultural, and communication service prices.
Energy prices remained a moderating force, though the decline was less severe (minus 4.4 percent after minus 6.2 percent), as fuel costs rebounded slightly. Food inflation inched up to 1.7 percent, propelled by meat, cereals, and beverages, while fresh fruit prices slowed. Manufactured goods continued to exert downward pressure on inflation, falling by 0.4 percent over the year, largely due to cheaper household appliances and furniture.
In essence, these updates indicate that while headline inflation remains modest, core inflation at 1.3 percent suggests stable domestic price dynamics. The easing of energy deflation and resilience in service costs hint at a gradual re-balancing of consumer prices as France transitions from post-Olympic and seasonal distortions toward steadier inflationary conditions, leaving the RPI and RPI-P at minus 7 and minus 4, respectively. This means that economic activities continue to perform within the expectations of the French economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
CPI expected down 1.0 percent on the month in September and up 1.2 percent on year, unrevised from the flash.