| Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.1% | -1.0% |
| Year over Year | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| HICP - M/M | 0.1% | -1.1% |
| HICP - Y/Y | 0.9% | 1.1% |
Highlights
Consumer prices are expected to slow in October to 1.0 percent year-on-year from 1.2 percent in September, according to preliminary estimates. Compared to a month ago, prices are expected to pick up a marginal 0.1 percent after falling 1.0 percent in September.
Energy prices continue to fall, dropping 5.6 percent year-on-year in October, extending the 4.4 percent decline last month, driven by gasoline and petroleum products. Food price gains slowed during the reporting month, gaining 1.3 percent from October of last year, down from 1.7 percent in September. This was helped by a 2.2 percent drop in fresh food prices, a sharp contrast to the 1.6 percent increase in September.
Prices for services remain elevated, rising 2.4 percent year-on-year in September and October, while those for manufactured products are seen falling 0.5 percent in October, year-on-year, after a 0.4 percent yearly drop in September. The manufacturing sector has been under pressure with other reports noting price discounting due to competitive pressures and companies attempting to hold on to market share.
The HICP measure used to compare inflation among European economies is also seen slowing October, to 0.9 percent year-on-year after a 1.1 percent increase the previous month. After falling 1.1 percent month-on-month in September, prices are seen rebounding to 0.1 percent in October. The sharp contrast in the monthly data is due to increased transportation prices and, to some degree, manufactured goods prices.
Today’s result, while only for France, shows the lack of inflationary pressures that could concern the ECB and support the central bank’s decision earlier this week to maintain its monetary policy stance. PPI data, also released today, also show no evidence of pipeline inflation heating up.