| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -0.9% | -1.1% to -0.8% | -1.0% | 0.4% |
| Year over Year | 1.2% | 1.0% to 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| HICP - M/M | -1.1% | 0.5% | ||
| HICP - Y/Y | 1.1% | 0.8% |
Highlights
Consumer prices are seen rising 1.2 percent in September following a 0.9 percent increase in August, according to preliminary figures released today.
A 4.5 percent decline in energy prices wasn’t enough to mitigate a 2.4 percent increase in services, which rose from the August reading of 2.1 percent. Food prices also ticked higher, increasing 1.7 percent from September of last year, up from a 1.6 percent reading in August, with other food products 1.8 percent more expensive than a year ago.
Prices for manufactured goods are seen falling 0.4 percent in September, extending the 0.3 percent decline registered in August.
On a month-on-month basis, prices are expected to fall 1.0 percent in September, a marked contrast to the 0.4 percent gain in August. This is due to a seasonal effect from a sharp decline in transportation, notably airfares and accommodations.
The HICP used to compare inflation among European economies is seen rising 1.1 percent after a 0.8 percent gain in September.
Prices are still within the comfort zone of the European Central Bank, and not likely to give the ECB pause.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
CPI expected down 0.9 percent on the month in September versus an increase of 0.4 percent in August. On year, expectations call for an increase of 1.2 percent versus 0.9 percent in August.