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FR: Business Climate Indicator
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Index | 95 | 95 to 96 | 96 | 96 | 97 |
Highlights
The Business Climate Index for September fell to 96 from 97 in August where, save for a reading of 100 in April, results have been bouncing back-and-forth since November of last year, indicating sentiment is stable and slightly pessimistic.
Order books remain a drag on the index with the overall reading falling to minus 23 for September, the lowest level since March. At the same time, export order books fell to minus 17 from minus 15 in August.
The transportation sector was a large drag on overall sentiment in September with the index falling below 100 for the first time since March to 99 from 104 in August. Within the sector, motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers sentiment dropped to 95 in September from 99 in August, while other transportation fell to 102 from 105.
Supply chain issues are persisting with 24 percent of firms reporting difficulties, up from 20 percent in August. On the demand side, 29 percent of businesses reported difficulties, up from 24 in August, matching the level of November of last year.
The manufacturing sector has been mired in stasis for the better part of a year. Political uncertainty in France certainly isn't helping as arguments around austerity measures continue. Adding the US tariff situation into the mix, even with an agreement of 15 percent, there remains a level of caution and uncertainty.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The index expected to tick down to 95 in September from 96 in August.
Definition
INSEE is France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. INSEE's business climate indicator aims to summarise the mood of French business leaders. The survey asks questions about output, orders and inventories and expectations for future business. These are synthesised into an overall index of sentiment, adjusted so that the long-run average is 100. The main focus is the manufacturing sector but the survey also provides separate confidence measures for construction, retail trade and services on a monthly basis and for wholesale trade every other month.
Description
If you are looking for clues on French business sentiment, this survey would be a good starting point. The indicator is based on a survey that asks business leaders about their expectations for new orders and their overall impressions of the economy. The results are a diffusion index that reflects the difference between positive and negative responses as a percentage of the total number of answers.