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DE: GfK Consumer Climate
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Index | -23.0 | -24.3 to -22.0 | -23.2 | -24.1 |
Highlights
The November consumer climate report revealed a modest rise in willingness to buy, combined with a fall in saving intentions, suggesting that consumers are cautiously prepared to spend, particularly ahead of the Christmas period. This shift supports the slight improvement in the consumer climate forecast for December, which increases by 0.9 points to minus 23.2, 0.2 points below the consensus forecast. However, the optimism is tempered by renewed declines in both income and economic expectations.
Income expectations fall for the second consecutive month to minus 0.1, though the decline is smaller than in October. Economic expectations also slip to minus 1.1, suggesting households do not anticipate a strong short-term recovery. The pattern reflects a climate of tentative stability, as consumers are willing to spend at levels similar to last year but remain unconvinced about their future financial security.
Overall, the consumer mood is neither deteriorating nor significantly improving, but instead signals a period of cautious continuity for retailers and policymakers navigating the end-of-year economic landscape. These latest updates take the RPI to minus 31 and the RPI-P to minus 38, indicating that economic activity continues to fall short of expectations for the German economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for the consumer sentiment index slightly less bleak at minus 23.0 in December versus minus 24.1 in November.
Definition
GfK's consumer climate survey asks around 2,000 German consumers every month about their assessment of economic conditions. The questions focus on economic and income expectations and consumers' willingness to buy. Having calculated the differences between the positive and negative responses for each question the results are synthesized into a single number that reflects overall consumer expectations for the coming month.
Description
Any insight into household expenditure is vital to understanding how the economy as a whole is shaping up. The monthly correlation between the GfK consumer gauge and actual spending is not especially high but trends in the index can offer useful information about potential underlying developments in consumer behavior. As a forward looking indicator, the GfK index is one input used by analysts in the construction of their forecasts of future German retail sales.