| Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Year over Year | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| HICP - M/M | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| HICP - Y/Y | 0.9% | 0.9% |
Highlights
Consumer inflation is expected to remain tame in July, rising 0.2 percent from June and 1.0 percent year-on-year, according to preliminary estimates released today. The monthly expected change is a slowdown from June's 0.4 percent while the year-on-year rate is the same.
Energy prices continue to act as mitigating factor, and are seen declining 7.2 percent, year-on-year, in July from minus 6.7 percent in June, primarily due to a basis effect on gasoline.
Food prices are seen up 1.6 percent year-on-year in July from June's 1.4 percent increase, with fresh food also 1.6 percent higher compared to 1.2 percent in June. Prices for services are also seen ticking higher from their June result of 2.4 percent to 2.5 percent in July compared to a year ago.
The harmonized index (HICP) which allows for comparison with other European economies is expected to be up 0.9 percent year-on-year in July, the same rate as in June. The monthly rate is expected to slow to 0.3 percent in July from 0.4 percent in June.
French inflation has been subdued relative to some other European economies. For now, overall inflation in Europe isn’t likely to be of concern to policy makers at the European Central Bank, but with the EU’s trade agreement with the US, pressures could start building.