| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Year over Year | 0.8% | 0.8% to 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
Highlights
The French economy expanded 0.1 percent in the first quarter, matching the flash figure, and grew 0.6 percent from the year-ago quarter. Consumers remained wary as consumption fell 0.2 percent from the fourth quarter, the first contraction since a comparable decline in the second quarter of 2023.
Exports fell sharply, down 1.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, on the back of declines in chemicals and transportation equipment. Imports increased 0.5 percent mainly on energy. As a result, net trade was a drag on growth, subtracting 0.8 percent.
At the same time, inventory changes contributed 1.0 percent to quarterly growth, but this should be read in the context of the tariff situation. Excluding inventory changes, domestic demand subtracted 0.1 percent from growth.
Households boosted savings rose to 18.8 percent of gross-disposable income (GDI) in the first quarter, from 18.5 percent in the final quarter of last year. This was boosted by a 0.1 percent bump in GDP in the first quarter, matching the increase in the previous quarter.
The economy remains in a fragile state, and with the tariff environment it will be a challenging second quarter. At this point, the inventory contribution is not necessarily a positive development and could foreshadow economic contraction.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters see no revision in Q1 GDP from 0.1 percent on quarter and 0.8 percent on year.