| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 1.2% | 0.6% to 1.4% | 1.3% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| Year over Year | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% |
Highlights
Canadian retail sales rebounded 1.3 percent in November after declining 0.3 percent in October, recovering slightly more than the 1.2 percent consensus expectation in an Econoday survey of forecasters. The monthly increase was mostly due to higher activity as volumes were up 1.1 percent on the month.
The rebound was likely short lived given that the advance estimate for December points to a 0.5 percent monthly decrease.
Gains were widespread across eight of nine subsectors in November, led by a 3.0 percent advance in food and beverages. Regionally, sales increased in seven provinces.
Excluding a 0.3 percent increase in motor vehicles and parts, sales grew 1.7 percent on the month. When also excluding a 2.0 percent rise in gasoline and fuel, core sales were up 1.6 percent on the month and 6.3 percent year-over-year. The 2.0 percent increase was driven mostly by higher prices, since gasoline and fuel sales volumes rose 0.7 percent from October.
Sales at health and personal care retailers expanded 1.6 percent on the month, and clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewellery, luggage and leather goods were up 2.4 percent.
Housing-related sales also increased on the month. Building material and garden equipment and supplies were up 2.1 percent, and furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances rose 0.5 percent.
The only subsector to record lower sales was sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous, with a 0.2 percent decrease on the month.
E-commerce sales decreased 2.8 percent to C$4.0 billion in November, accounting for 5.7 percent of total retail trade, down from 6.0 percent in October
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus agrees with the Stats Canada preliminary estimate with an increase of 1.2 percent.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are reported in cash terms and disaggregated into eleven main subsectors. Aggregate volume figures are also provided.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Data are available both for total retail sales and those excluding autos and for 16 different store specializations. Since autos account for over 25 percent of retail sales, the sector can have a pronounced impact on overall sales given their volatility. Retail sales are used to estimate the goods portion of personal consumer expenditures in the quarterly GDP accounts, accounting for about 50 percent of the total.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.