| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.7% | 0.1% to 0.8% | 0.8% | -0.4% |
| Year over Year | 5.6% | 4.7% |
Highlights
Canada retail sales rebounded last month, emerging from the winter doldrums with a 0.8 percent jump, exceeding the 0.7 percent increase expected in the Econoday consensus forecast, and compared to a 0.4 percent drop in February. Statscan said sales were up in six of the nine subsectors, led by increases sales at motor vehicles and parts dealers.
Retail sales are up 5.6 percent from March 2024.
Core retail sales, excluding gasoline stations, fuel vendors and auto dealers, rose at a much slower pace up 0.2 percent following a 0.5 percent jump in February. Core sales are up 5.5 percent year-over-year.
The Bank of Canada's aggressive rate cuts are having an effect on household spending, and this report shows no lagging effects from the severe winter weather in early 2025. It remains to be seen, however, how much on a negative impact the trade war will have on consumer spending.
On a monthly basis, sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 4.8 percent in March, with a surge in sales activity at new car dealers (+5.2 percent), as well as parts, accessories and tire retailers (+5.5 percent).
The rise in core retail sales was fueled by higher sales at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+2.6 percent), followed by clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage and leather goods retailers (+2.6 percent).
Retail sales at food and beverage retailers fell by 0.2 percent. Lower beer, wine, and liquor retailers (-1.9 percent) led the decline.
Sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors fell 6.5 percent in March, breaking the streak of five consecutive monthly increases.
E-commerce sales declined again in March down 2.1 percent making up 6 percent of total retail trade, compared with 6.2 percent in February.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters agree with Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate calling for sales to rise 0.7 percent for March from February after February’s decline of 0.4 percent.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are reported in cash terms and disaggregated into eleven main subsectors. Aggregate volume figures are also provided.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Data are available both for total retail sales and those excluding autos and for 16 different store specializations. Since autos account for over 25 percent of retail sales, the sector can have a pronounced impact on overall sales given their volatility. Retail sales are used to estimate the goods portion of personal consumer expenditures in the quarterly GDP accounts, accounting for about 50 percent of the total.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.