| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | -3.3% | -3.3% to -3.3% | -3.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Year over Year | -5.7% | -1.1% | -1.4% |
Highlights
Manufacturing sales retreated 3.0 percent to $68.7 billion in January, although they held up slightly better than the expectation of a 3.3 percent decline in an Econoday survey of forecasters.
Sales decreased in 11 of 21 subsectors, led by transportation equipment, down 18.2 percent, with motor vehicle sales plunging 38.9 percent to $2.6 billion, the lowest level since September 2021. Several major auto assembly plants in Ontario extended their winter shutdowns from December to January to complete model change retooling and production line maintenance, resulting in reduced auto production, the report said. Ontario the auto manufacturing heart of Canada, posted the largest decline among provinces.
Excluding motor vehicles, parts and accessories, overall sales decline was limited to 0.5 percent.
Machinery, and indication of business investment activity, was also down 5.6 percent in January after rising 3.2 percent in December.
January sales contraction was due to lower activity, as volumes were down 3.9 percent, while industrial prices rose 2.7 percent.
Looking ahead, there is little indication of a meaningful recovery, quite the contrary, with new orders down 3.3 percent. Unfilled orders rose 0.2 percent.
Inventories were up 0.9 percent on the month, lifting the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.76 from 1.69, the highest level since May 2025.
The unadjusted capacity rate decreased to 75.3 percent from 76.8 percent in December.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
As usual, forecasters agree with Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate which calls for a drop of 3.3 percent on the month in January after rising 0.6 percent in December.
Definition
Manufacturing sales for twenty-one reporting industries are the Canadian dollar level of factory shipments for manufacturing durable and nondurable goods. Volume figures are also provided. The sales statistics form part of a wide monthly report that encompasses information on new orders, backlogs and inventories and is a key input into forecasts of monthly gross domestic product (GDP).
Description
Manufacturer's shipments represent the monetary level of factory shipments for durable and nondurable goods and are a relevant indicator for an export-oriented economy. The data are used by analysts to evaluate the economic health of manufacturing industries. They are also used as inputs to GDP and needless to say, these data are used by the central bank in its decision-making process.
The monthly survey of manufacturing of which shipments is a part, provides a broad look at manufacturing activity levels. The level of activity in manufacturing can be affected by the level of interest rates which slows or stimulates the demand for goods and production. Shipments are an indication of how busy factories have been as manufacturers work to fill orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. Because a large proportion of shipments are headed south of the border to the U.S. and include a wide variety of durables, shipments are affected by U.S. economic activity as well as the exchange rate. Although the focus in this report is on shipments, it also contains information on inventories and new and unfilled orders.
Results from this survey are used by both the private and public sectors including finance departments of the federal and provincial governments, the Bank of Canada, Industry Canada, the System of National Accounts, the manufacturing community, consultants and research organizations in Canada, the United States and abroad.