| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.5% | 0.5% to 0.6% | 0.6% | -1.2% | -1.3% |
| Year over Year | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.4% |
Highlights
Manufacturing sales rose 0.6 percent in December, roughly in line with expectations in an Econoday survey of forecasters, partly recovering November's 1.3 percent decline. Sales decreased 1.1 percent from a year earlier.
On a quarterly basis, manufacuting sales fedged up 0.2 percent. Still, in 2025, manufacturing sales contracted 0.4 percent after declining 1.7 percent in 2024. In real terms, sales were down 2.5 percent.
In December, activity was stronger than the headline suggested, as volumes increased 1.8 percent on the month, while industrial prices fell 0.6 percent.
Leading indicators are pointing to limited upward momentum, as new orders were up 0.2 percent and unfilled orders 0.4 percent.
With inventories contracting 1.2 percent over the month, the inventory-to-sales ratio ended 2025 at 1.69, down from 1.72 in November.
Nominal sales showed a mixed picture in December, with gains in 12 of 21 subsectors, led by a 12.0 percent increase in motor vehicles. After semiconductor chip shortages curtailed production at a major auto assembly plant in October and November in Ontario, production resumed in December. Excluding motor vehicles, parts and accessories, sales edged up just 0.1 percent on the month. Overall transportation equipment increased 1.8 percent. A 2.0 percent increase in food products led by higher volumes also supported activity in December.
On the downside, petroleum and coal products decreased 5.1 percent. Volumes were down 2.8 percent on the month and global supply surplus continued to pressure petroleum markets, translating into lower crude oil prices.
Regionally, sales increased across six provinces, led by Ontario and British Columbia.
The unadjusted capacity utilization rate for the manufacturing sector fell to 76.8 percent in December from 78.7 percent in November.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters agree with Statistics Canada’s advance estimate calling for sales up 0.5 percent, paced by food and auto sales.
Definition
Manufacturing sales for twenty-one reporting industries are the Canadian dollar level of factory shipments for manufacturing durable and nondurable goods. Volume figures are also provided. The sales statistics form part of a wide monthly report that encompasses information on new orders, backlogs and inventories and is a key input into forecasts of monthly gross domestic product (GDP).
Description
Manufacturer's shipments represent the monetary level of factory shipments for durable and nondurable goods and are a relevant indicator for an export-oriented economy. The data are used by analysts to evaluate the economic health of manufacturing industries. They are also used as inputs to GDP and needless to say, these data are used by the central bank in its decision-making process.
The monthly survey of manufacturing of which shipments is a part, provides a broad look at manufacturing activity levels. The level of activity in manufacturing can be affected by the level of interest rates which slows or stimulates the demand for goods and production. Shipments are an indication of how busy factories have been as manufacturers work to fill orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. Because a large proportion of shipments are headed south of the border to the U.S. and include a wide variety of durables, shipments are affected by U.S. economic activity as well as the exchange rate. Although the focus in this report is on shipments, it also contains information on inventories and new and unfilled orders.
Results from this survey are used by both the private and public sectors including finance departments of the federal and provincial governments, the Bank of Canada, Industry Canada, the System of National Accounts, the manufacturing community, consultants and research organizations in Canada, the United States and abroad.