| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -1.1% | -1.1% to -1.0% | -1.0% | 3.3% |
| Year over Year | 0.7% | 2.7% |
Highlights
Manufacturing sales are down 1.0 percent on the month in October, close to the 1.1 percent decline anticipated in the Econoday consensus forecast and in the Statistics Canada preliminary estimate. Sales are up 0.7 percent on year.
Excluding motor vehicles, sales are down 1.1 percent on the month and up 0.7 percent on year in October. Inventories are down 0.7 percent on the month and up 1.7 percent on year. Unfilled orders are up 0.1 percent on the month and up 7.7 percent on year.
In real terms, sales are down 1.5 percent on the month in October and down 3.2 percent on year. The industrial product price index is up 1.5 on the month in October and up 6.0 percent on year.
For the month, in current dollars, sales declined in 11 of the 21 sub-categories, led by chemicals (down 6.0 percent), wood products (down 9.0 percent) and transportation equipment (down 2.3 percent).
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus agrees with the Stats Canada preliminary estimate calling for sales to fall back 1.1 percent in October after a big 3.3 percent rise in September.
Definition
Manufacturing sales for twenty-one reporting industries are the Canadian dollar level of factory shipments for manufacturing durable and nondurable goods. Volume figures are also provided. The sales statistics form part of a wide monthly report that encompasses information on new orders, backlogs and inventories and is a key input into forecasts of monthly gross domestic product (GDP).
Description
Manufacturer's shipments represent the monetary level of factory shipments for durable and nondurable goods and are a relevant indicator for an export-oriented economy. The data are used by analysts to evaluate the economic health of manufacturing industries. They are also used as inputs to GDP and needless to say, these data are used by the central bank in its decision-making process.
The monthly survey of manufacturing of which shipments is a part, provides a broad look at manufacturing activity levels. The level of activity in manufacturing can be affected by the level of interest rates which slows or stimulates the demand for goods and production. Shipments are an indication of how busy factories have been as manufacturers work to fill orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. Because a large proportion of shipments are headed south of the border to the U.S. and include a wide variety of durables, shipments are affected by U.S. economic activity as well as the exchange rate. Although the focus in this report is on shipments, it also contains information on inventories and new and unfilled orders.
Results from this survey are used by both the private and public sectors including finance departments of the federal and provincial governments, the Bank of Canada, Industry Canada, the System of National Accounts, the manufacturing community, consultants and research organizations in Canada, the United States and abroad.