| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| Year over Year | 0.6% | 0.4% |
Highlights
Canada's GDP was flat in November after contracting 0.3 percent in October, slightly weaker than the consensus estimate of a 0.1 percent increase in an Econoday survey of forecasters.
The advance estimate for December points to a 0.1 percent increase, which would translate into a 0.1 percent GDP contraction in the fourth quarter, for a 1.3 percent growth in 2025.
Today's report suggests the economy could have been slightly weaker than what the central bank projects. In its January Monetary Policy Report, the BoC projects a stalling fourth quarter GDP for a 1.7 percent growth in 2025. GDP is projected to grow 1.1 percent in 2026 and 1.5 percent in 2027.
The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) trilateral trade deal is up for review in 2026 and represents an important source of risk for the Canadian economy that is closely watched by the Bank of Canada. Beyond industries directly affected by U.S. tariffs, the central bank is monitoring the spillover into the broader economy, notably through weaker production and employment.
In November, weakness in the goods-producing industry continued with a 0.3 percent decline after a 0.7 percent decrease in October, while services recovered 0.1 percent after contracting by the same percentage in October.
A 1.3 percent decline in manufacturing, after minus 1.7 percent the previous month, dragged the goods-producing industries performance. Durable manufacturing was down 1.9 percent, including a 6.4 percent drop in motor vehicle and parts related to global semiconductor shortages that impacted production. Nondurable manufacturing was down 0.8 percent.
Also weighing on goods-producing output was a 1.1 percent decrease in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting. By contrast, utilities were up 0.6 percent, construction up 0.2 percent and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction up 0.3 percent. Energy rose 0.7 percent, more than recovering the 0.6 percent retreat in October.
In services, retail trade recovered 1.3 percent in November after declining 0.6 percent in October. Transportation and warehousing expanded 0.9 percent. Educational services were up 1.0 percent after three consecutive months of declines, driving a 0.4 percent rebound in the public sector. Gains in health care and social assistance (0.2 percent) and public administration (0.1 percent), also supported public sector activity.
These gains were partly offset by a 2.1 percent drop in wholesale trade, the largest decline since April 2025.
The advance estimate for December points to a recovery in both manufacturing and wholesale trade, while mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction declines.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters agree with Statistics Canada preliminary estimate of 0.1 percent for November.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. In contrast to most industrialised countries a monthly estimate is provided derived from the value added by labour and capital in transforming inputs purchased from other producers into that industry's output. Data for the reference month are usually released close to the end of the second month after the reference period.
Description
Instead of producing an advanced quarterly GDP figure and revising it the following two months, Statistics Canada releases monthly estimates of real GDP at Basic Prices. This release breaks down real output by seven goods-producing industries and twelve service-producing industries, and includes special aggregations such as business sector, non-business sector, and industrial production.
The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.