| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Large Manufacturer Sentiment Index | 15 | 13 to 16 | 15 | 14 |
| Large Non-Manufacturer Sentiment Index | 35 | 33 to 36 | 34 | 34 |
| Small Manufacturer Sentiment Index | 1 | -1 to 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Small Non-Manufacturer Sentiment Index | 14 | 12 to 15 | 15 | 14 |
| Large Firms Capital Expenditure Plans | 12.1% | 10.0% to 13.4% | 12.6% | 12.5% |
| Small Firms Capital Expenditure Plans | -0.2% | -1.1% to 2.9% | 0.1% | -2.3% |
Highlights
The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan business sentiment survey showed confidence among major manufacturers improved in December for the third straight quarter, as expected, confirming that firms have weathered the drag from stiff U.S. tariffs and setting the stage for the bank to continue raising interest rates gradually at its Dec. 18-19 meeting.
BOJ Dec quarter Tankan large manufacturer sentiment index at +15 (Sept 14); median forecast +15
BOJ Dec Tankan: large manufacturer sentiment edges up despite drag from protectionist U.S. trade policy
BOJ Dec Tankan large non-manufacturer sentiment index at +34 (Sept +34); median forecast +35
BOJ Dec Tankan smaller manufacturer sentiment index at +6 (Sept +1); median forecast +1
BOJ Dec Tankan smaller non-manufacturer sentiment index +15 (Sept 14); median forecast +14
BOJ Dec Tankan: large firm fiscal 2025 combined capex plans +12.6% y/y (Sept +12.5%, June +11.5, Mar +3.1%); median forecast +12.1%
BOJ Dec Tankan: smaller firm fiscal 2025 combined capex plans +0.1% y/y (Sept -2.3%, June -5.6%, Mar -10.0%); median forecast -0.2%
BOJ Dec Tankan: major manufacturers see inflation at 2.1% a year from now vs. 2.0% forecast in Sept survey
BOJ Dec Tankan: major manufacturers see inflation at 2.0% in 3 years from now vs. 2.0% forecast in Sept survey
BOJ Dec Tankan: major manufacturers see inflation at 1.9% in 5 years from now vs. 1.9% forecast in Sept survey
BOJ Dec Tankan: all-industry sales plans for fiscal 2025 revised up from Sept but still down from fiscal 2024
BOJ Dec Tankan: all firms assume fiscal 2025 USD/JPY FX rate to average Y147.06 (Sept Y145.68)
BOJ Dec Tankan: all-industry current profit plans for fiscal 2025 revised up from Sept but expect a drop after modest gain in fiscal 2024
BOJ Dec Tankan: all firms assume fiscal 2025 EUR/JPY FX rate to average Y164.45 (Sept Y160.65)
BOJ Dec Tankan: all-industry current profit plans for fiscal 2025 revised up from Sept but expect a drop after modest gain in fiscal 2024
BOJ Dec Tankan shows labor shortages persist in many industries and slightly tighter three months ahead
BOJ Dec Tankan: firms revised down new graduate hiring plans for fiscal 2026, but all-industry plans still up from slight decline in fiscal 2025
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business sentiment survey is expected to show a slight improvement among major firms in both manufacturing and services sectors in the December quarter, supported by the yen’s continued weakness and solid global demand tied to artificial intelligence. At the same time, the negative effects of the Trump tariffs are expected to continue to surface, keeping the overall outlook cautious.
Business sentiment among small manufacturers, as well as among both large and small non-manufacturers, is expected to remain largely unchanged from the September survey.
The Tankan diffusion index for major manufacturers is forecast at 15, up from 14 in September and seen marking the third straight quarterly increase. The index measuring sentiment among major non-manufacturers is also projected to tick up to 35 from 34.
The index for smaller manufacturers is forecast to hold at 1 while that for small non-manufacturers is also expected to be unchanged at 14. The BOJ will release the results of its Tankan survey, conducted from around mid-November to mid-December, at 0850 JST on Monday, December 15 (1850 EST/2350 GMT on Sunday, December 14).
Definition
The Tankan survey, which is conducted quarterly by the Bank of Japan, is considered the most complete reading of Japan's economic performance. The Tankan surveys individual components of the economy such as large and small manufacturing and nonmanufacturing enterprises. A key component of the survey deals with capital expenditures (CAPEX) going forward.
Description
The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey is considered one of the most important indicators of the economy's health and helps the Bank of Japan determine monetary policy. It is widely used by investors to determine future investments in Japan. Firms are asked questions that cover a wide range of topics including the future direction of capital expenditure and pricing as well as the corporate outlook towards employment and the overall economy.
The data are broken down by large, medium and small manufacturers as well as the non-manufacturing sectors. A key number to watch is the all industries capital expenditure or CAPEX measures capital expenditure by all Japanese industries except the financial industry. The large manufacturers' index reflects the large international companies while the small manufacturers' index is reflects the domestic economy.