| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Balance | ¥1114.20B | ¥530.60B to ¥1620.00B | ¥667.0B | ¥57.3B |
| Imports - Y/Y | 5.7% | 3.0% to 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.2% |
| Exports - Y/Y | 11.2% | 8.9% to 14.2% | 11.7% | +4.2% |
Highlights
Japan's export values posted their seventh straight rise on year in March, up 11.7% as largely expected, to hit a fresh record high of ¥11.00 trillion, surpassing their previous high of ¥10.41 trillion reached in December 2025. The pace of increase had slowed to a revised 4.0% in February, which was in payback for rush shipments to Asia before the Feb. 17 Lunar New Year that drove overall January exports to surge 16.8%.
The double-digit percentage gain was driven by computer chips, non-ferrous metals and mineral fuels as seen in recent months. Japanese carmakers and steel mills are weathering Trump tariffs storms. Japan's total shipments to the United States were still bigger than those to China in both values and volumes in the fiscal year ended on March 31.
In fiscal 2025, shipments to the world also climbed to their highest level on record, rising 4.0% for the first annual increase in five years to ¥113.24 trillion, reflecting strong demand for semiconductors, non-ferrous metal and materials and overcoming tariff-caused declines in shipments of autos, iron/steel and auto parts.
Import values marked a second straight rise, up by an above-forecast 10.9%, after rising a revised 10.3% in February and falling 2.6% in January. The solid increase is seen led by purchases of telecommunications equipment (smartphones), non-ferrous metals and computers chips.
The trade balance came to a surplus of ¥667.00 billion for a fifth positive figure in 12 months after recording a downwardly revised ¥44.30 billion surplus the previous month. It compares with a ¥529.81 billion surplus seen in March 2025.
Details:
Japan March exports +11.7% y/y (Feb revised +4.0%), 7th straight rise; median forecast +11.2%
Japan March imports +10.9% y/y (Feb revised +10.3%), 2nd straight rise; median forecast +5.7%
Japan March trade surplus ¥667.0 bln (Feb revised ¥44.30 bln surplus); 2nd straight surplus; median forecast ¥1,114.20 bln surplus
Japan Mar exports record high of ¥11.0 trln, surpassing previous high of ¥10.41 trln reached in Dec 2025
Japan March export y/y rise led by computer chips, non-ferrous metals, fossil fuels
Japan March import y/y rise led by communication equipments (smart phones), non-ferrous metals, computer chips
Japan March exports to US +3.4% y/y, 1st rise in 4 months?? (Feb -8.0%), led by batteries, heavy electrical equipment, aircrafts
Japan Mar exports to Asia record high ¥6.13 trln, exceeding previous high of ¥5.70 trln in Dec 2025
Japan March exports to EU +18.2%, 8th straight rise (Feb +14.0%), led by autos, engines, chipmaking equipment
Japan March exports to China +17.2% y/y, 1st rise in 2 months (Feb revised -11.0%) led by chipmaking equipment, non-ferrous metals, raw materials
Japan Mar exports to China also record high ¥1.96 trln, well above prior high of ¥1.81 trln hit in Dec 2025
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese export values are expected to rise for a seventh straight month in March and expected to push the country’s trade balance into surplus for a second consecutive month. Rising oil prices amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are seen restraining import volumes, although import values are still expected to increase for a second straight month.
Exports are projected to rise 11.2% on the year in March, accelerating from a revised 4.0% gain in February (initially 4.2%). Solid overseas demand for semiconductor-related electronic components and non-ferrous metals continued to support exports, but growth is seen moderating toward the end of March amid the impact of the U.S.-Iran military tensions.
In February, export growth picked up modestly, partly reflecting payback from front-loaded shipments to Asia ahead of the Feb. 17 Lunar New Year, which had boosted January figures. The February increase was driven by computer chips, mineral fuels and construction machinery, partly offset by declines in semiconductor manufacturing equipment and iron and steel. Exports to Europe and Asia remained firm, while shipments to the U.S. and China declined.
Imports are forecast to rise 5.7% on the year in March, slowing from a revised 10.3% increase in February (initially 10.2%). February imports were led by semiconductor-related components, non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal ores, partly reflecting irregular trade patterns linked to Lunar New Year holidays in parts of Asia.
Against this backdrop, Japan’s customs-cleared trade balance is expected to post a surplus of about 1.11 trillion yen in March, a sharp increase from a revised 44.3 billion yen surplus in February.
Definition
Merchandise Trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.