| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | ¥-516.95B | ¥-660.00B to ¥49.80B | ¥57.3B | ¥-1,152.6B | ¥-1,163.53B |
| Imports - Y/Y | 12.5% | 9.1% to 16.2% | 10.2% | -2.5% | -2.4% |
| Exports - Y/Y | 1.6% | -3.5% to 4.0% | +4.2% | +16.8% |
Highlights
Japan's export values posted their sixth straight rise on year in February but the pace of increase decelerated to 4.2% in payback for rush shipments to Asia before the Feb. 17 Lunar New Year that saw overall January exports jump 16.8%. The modest increase in February was driven by computer chips, mineral fuels and construction machinery, which was partly offset by lower shipments of chip-making equipment and iron and steel. Stiff U.S. tariffs are hurting the auto industry and steel mills but exports have shown some resilience, thanks to solid demand from Europe and Asia.
Import values rebounded 10.2% after marking their first decline in five months in January (revised -2.6%), led by computers chips, non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous ores. This is also part of the irregular trade patters around the Lunar New Year holidays in parts of Asia. Last year, imports slipped 0.6% in February after surging 16.4% the previous month.
The trade balance came to a surplus of ¥57.27 billion, the eighth shortfall in 12 months, following a revised ¥1.163 trillion deficit in January. It compares with a ¥585.49 billion surplus recorded in February 2025. At least one economist who has accurately predicted trade data called for a modest surplus while most others expected a deficit.
Details:
Japan Feb exports +4.2% y/y (Jan +16.8%), 6th straight rise; median forecast +1.6%
Japan Feb exports slower in payback for rush shipments to Asia before Feb 17 Lunar New Year (it was Jan. 29 in 2025)
Japan Feb imports +10.2% y/y (Jan revised -2.4%), 1st rise in 2 months; median forecast +12.5%
Japan Feb import jump in reaction to -0.6% in Feb 2025, -2.6% in Jan 2026 vs. +16.2% in Jan 2025 as part of Lunar New Year irregular patterns
Japan Feb trade surplus ¥57.3 bln (Jan revised ¥1,163.53 bln deficit); 1st surplus in 2 months; median forecast ¥516.95 bln deficit
Japan Feb trade balance posts 5th surplus in 12 months
Japan Feb export y/y rise led by computer chips, mineral fuels, construction machinery
Japan Feb import y/y rise led by computer chips, non-ferrous metals, non-ferrous metal ores
Japan Feb exports to US -8.0% y/y, 3rd straight fall (Jan revised -5.1%), led by autos, drugs, auto parts
Japan Feb exports to EU +14.0%, 7th straight rise (Jan +29.6%), led by autos, mining equipment, computer chips
Japan Feb exports to China -10.9% y/y, 1st fall in 3 months (Jan revised +5.0%) led by computer chips, plastics, scientific optical instruments
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese export values are projected to increase for a sixth straight month in February
but are expected to decelerate sharply from a month earlier, when rush shipments
ahead of the Lunar New Year prompted unexpectedly robust trading activity. A sharp
increase in imports is expected to push the country’s trade balance into a deficit for the
second straight month.
In reaction to the sharp rise in the previous month and the fact that this year’s Lunar
New Year holiday in mainland China lasted beyond mid-February — from Feb. 16 to 23
— trading activity with the world’s second-largest economy is expected to slow
considerably during the month, leaving exports seen rising only 1.6 percent in February after
surging 16.8 percent in January.
In January, exports were driven by computer chips, non-ferrous metals and plastics,
largely in line with trends seen in recent months. Exports to Europe and Asia increased
for a sixth straight month through January, while shipments to the United States fell for
the second consecutive month, with automobile exports remaining sluggish amid stiff
U.S. trade tariffs.
Japan’s exports of non-ferrous metals and semiconductor-related electronic
components are expected to continue increasing in February, along with mineral fuels,
while steel and chip-manufacturing equipment are expected to decline.
In contrast, imports are expected to jump 12.5 percent in February in reaction to a revised
2.4 percent decline a month earlier, following decreases for five straight months through
January. Large increases in imports are expected in semiconductor-related electronic
components, non-ferrous metals and mobile phones, while no major items are seen
posting a significant decline during the month. Taking these moves into account,
Japan’s customs-cleared trade balance is expected to post a deficit of ¥516.95 billion in
February for the second consecutive month.
Definition
Merchandise Trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.