| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | ¥-2,211.45B | ¥-2,461.70B to ¥-1,776.80B | ¥-1,152.6B | ¥105.7B | ¥113.49B |
| Imports - Y/Y | 3.1% | -2.4% to 7.0% | -2.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% |
| Exports - Y/Y | 11.9% | 4.9% to 14.5% | +16.8% | 5.1% |
Highlights
Japan's export values posted the fifth straight rise on year in January, up an impressive 16.8% (consensus +11.9%), but it was largely due to rush shipments ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays from Feb. 16 until Feb. 23 in mainland China and the amount was not so impressive ¥9.19 trillion following a record high ¥10.41 trillion in December (+5.1%). The Lunar New Year fell on Jan. 29 last year, when Japanese exports slowed to ¥7.87 trillion. However, exports have also been showing some resilience, weathering the drag from U.S. trade rows and riding the wave of recovering demand from Europe and Asia. The increase was driven by computer chips, non-ferrous metals and plastics, as largely seen in recent months.
In contrast, import values marked their first fall in five months, down 2.5% (consensus +3.1%) vs. a revised +5.2% in December, led by lower purchases of liquefied natural gas, crude oil and refined petroleum products. Imports of computers chips and non-ferrous metals showed sharp gains. Again, this is part of the irregular trade patters around the Lunar New Year holidays. Last year, imports jumped 16.2% on year to ¥10.61 trillion in January before slipping 0.9% to ¥8.60 trillion.
As a result of a 12-month high of ¥10.34 trillion in imports, compared to a seven-month low of ¥9.19 trillion in exports, the trade balance amounted to a deficit of ¥1.15 trillion, the first shortfall in three months, following a revised ¥113.49 billion surplus in December. It compares with a much wider ¥2.74 trillion deficit recorded in January 2025.
Details:
Japan Jan exports +16.8% y/y (Dec +5.1%), 5th straight rise; median forecast +11.9%
Japan Jan imports -2.5% y/y (Dec revised +5.2%), 1st fall in five months; median forecast +3.1%
Japan Jan trade deficit ¥1,152.6 bln (Dec revised ¥113.49 bln surplus); 1st deficit in three months; median forecast ¥2,211.45 bln deficit
Japan Jan export y/y rise led by computer chips, non-ferrous metals, plastics
Japan Jan exports' 16.8% y/y jump seen due to rush shipments before the Feb. 17 Lunar New Year, vs. +7.3% in Jan 2025 when the Lunar New Year was on Jan. 29
Japan Jan import y/y fall led by liquefied natural gas, crude oil, oil products
Japan Jan imports' 2.5% y/y drop in reaction to a 16.2% surge in Jan 2025, followed by a 0.9% dip in Feb 2025, due to Lunar New Year irregular patterns
Japan Jan exports to EU +29.6%, 6th straight rise (Dec +2.6%), led by autos, mining equipment, chipmaking equipment
Japan Jan exports to China +32.2% y/y, 2nd straight rise (Dec +5.6%), led by chipmaking equipment, plastics, raw materials
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese export values are expected to grow for a fifth straight month in January, supported by increases in semiconductor-related electronic components, ships and nonferrous metals. Still, the country’s trade balance is seen slipping into deficit for the first time in three months. Exports are projected to rise 11.9 percent from a year earlier in January, following a 5.1 percent increase in December. Export values may have risen in early to mid-January, as some shipments were likely front-loaded in Asia ahead of the Lunar New Year in February.
In December, exports rose for a fifth consecutive month to Europe and Asia and increased for the first time in two months to China. By contrast, exports to the U.S. fell 11.1 percent in December, led by declines in auto and auto-related parts amid the impact of Trump’s tariff policy.
Imports are also expected to rise for a fifth straight month, gaining about 3.1 percent on the year in January after a revised 5.2 percent increase in December. January’s import growth is seen driven by semiconductor-related electronic components, nonferrous metals and crude oil. Although crude oil import prices fell in early to mid-January, higher import volumes helped lift overall import values.
As a result, the customs-cleared trade balance is expected to swing into a deficit for the first time in three months, estimated at ¥2.21 trillion in January, following a revised surplus of ¥113.5 billion in December and a ¥2.74 trillion deficit in January 2025.
Definition
Merchandise Trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.