| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | ¥331.25B | ¥240.00B to ¥410.80B | ¥105.7B | ¥322.23B | ¥316.70B |
| Imports - Y/Y | 4.2% | 2.2% to 5.6% | 5.3% | 1.3% | |
| Exports - Y/Y | 6.2% | 5.1% to 7.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% |
Highlights
Japan's export values posted a fourth straight rise on year in December, up 5.1%, backed by the recent pickup in export volumes and reflecting solid demand from Europe and Asia that is offsetting the drag from depressed auto exports to the United States. Exports hit a record high of ¥10.4 trillion, surpassing the previous high of ¥9.91 trillion reached in December 2024.
The pace of increase slowed from the 6.1% gain in November. Shipments to the key U.S. market slipped back to an 11.1% drop to ¥1.81 trillion from a year earlier when they stood high at ¥2.03 trillion. Japanese exports to the U.S. had posted their first rise in eighth months in November, rising 8.8% to ¥1.82 trillion. By contrast, exports to China rose 5.6% on year to hit a record high of ¥1.81 trillion and those to Asia as a whole were also at a record level of ¥5.70 trillion.
The focus is on seasonally adjusted real exports in the final quarter of 2025, an important factor for forecasting the gross domestic product for October-December. The Bank of Japan's real export index rebounded 6.6% on the month in November after slipping 3.7% in October and rising 2.8% in September. The index rose 1.4% in the October-November period on the third quarter, when it dipped 1.4%. The BOJ releases the summary of real trade data for December and Q4 at 1400 JST (0500) on Thursday, Jan. 22 and details on Tuesday, Jan. 27.
Economists expect the Q4 GDP to show a slight rebound but warned that the outlook for external demand remains uncertain as the full impact of the protection U.S. trade policy may be emerging toward the end of the year.
As for the whole of 2025, Japanese exports climbed 3.1% on the year for the fifth straight gain, hitting a record high of ¥110.45 trillion vs. ¥107.09 trillion in 2024. The increase was led by solid demand for computer chips, food and engines to the European Union and Asia minus China. Shipments of steel, auto parts and autos were down as stiff Trump tariffs kicked in.
Results for December:
Japan Dec exports hit record high of Y10.4 trln, surpassing previous high of Y9.91 trln reached in Dec 2024
Japan Dec exports +5.1% y/y (Nov +6.1%), 4th straight rise; median forecast +6.2%
Japan Dec imports +5.3% y/y (Nov +1.3%), 4th straight rise; median forecast +4.2%
Japan Dec trade surplus ¥105.7 bln (Nov revised ¥316.70 bln surplus); 2nd straight surplus; median forecast ¥331.25 bln surplus
Japan Dec export y/y rise led by computer chips, non-ferrous metals, materials; autos still down
Japan Dec import y/y rise led by smart phones, drugs, computer chips
Japan Dec exports to US -11.1% y/y, 1st fall in 2 months (Nov +8.8%), led by autos, auto parts, chipmaking equipment
Japan Dec exports to EU +2.6%, 5th straight rise (Nov +19.6%), led by autos, mining equipment, chipmaking equipment
Japan Dec exports to China up 5.6% y/y to hit record high of Y1.81 trln, those to Asia also at record high of Y5.70 trln
Japan Dec exports to China +5.6% y/y, 1st rise in 2 months (Nov -2.4%), led by raw materials, computer chip equipment, drugs
Results for 2025:
Japan 2025 exports +3.1% y/y for 5th straight gain, hit record high of Y110.45 trln vs. Y107.09 trln in 2024
Japan 2025 exports rise led by computer chips, food, engines to EU, Asia minus China; steel, auto parts, autos down on Trump tariffs
Japan 2025 imports +0.3% y/y for 2nd straight rise to Y113.10 trln, 2nd largest on record
Japan 2025 import rise led by computers, smartphones, engines in light of strong demand for updating Windows operating system
Japan 2025 trade deficit ¥2.6507 trln; 5 straight years of deficit
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japan’s export values are projected to increase 6.2 percent on the year in December, up slightly from a stronger-than-expected 6.1 percent rise in November. The increase in November reflects recovering demand from Europe and Asia, as well as a rebound in shipments to the U.S., which rose for the first time in eight months despite Trump’s tariff policy. The recovery in exports is expected to result in Japan posting a trade surplus for a second consecutive month in December.
Import values are expected to rise 4.1 percent in December, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase, after gaining 1.3 percent in November following rises of 0.7 percent in October and 3.3 percent in September. Imports were seen increasing in communications equipment, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor-related electronic components, while crude oil, coal, and nonferrous metal ores were expected to decline sharply.
As a result, Japan’s trade balance is expected to post a surplus for the second consecutive month, estimated at 331.25 billion yen in December, following a revised ¥316.70 billion surplus in November and a ¥127.72 billion surplus in December 2024.
Definition
Merchandise Trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.