| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.5% | 0.2% to 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% |
| Year over Year | 0.7% | -0.5% to 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% |
Highlights
Japanese retail sales rose 1.0% on year in November for a third straight increase after rising 1.7% in October, led by sustained strong demand for drugs and cosmetics, solid vehicle sales and a sharp gain in appliances, possibly heat pumps and other seasonal goods. The slower pace of increase reflects a third straight drop in clothing and a slower rise in combined sales at department stores and supermarkets.
Industry data released this week showed that department store sales recorded a fourth straight year-on-year increase in November as cold weather propped up sales of winter clothing but its pace decelerated to a modest 0.9% from a 4.3% rise in October as spending by visitors from overseas posted its first y/y drop in two months, down 2.5%.
Details:
Japan Nov retail sales +1.0% y/y (Oct +1.7%); 3rd straight rise; median forecast +0.7% (range: -0.5% to +0.9%)
Japan Nov retail sales +0.6% m/m (Oct +1.6%); median forecast +0.5% (range: +0.2% to +0.5%)
Japan METI upgrades view for 1st time since Feb 2025: retail sales taking one step forward, one step back vs. have weak undertone
Japan Nov retail sales y/y rise led by drugs/cosmetics, autos, appliances; clothing sales slip
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese retail sales are seen rising 0.7 percent on the year in November, marking a third consecutive month of gains after increasing 1.7 percent the previous month, supported by firm demand for drugs and cosmetics and a rebound in auto sales.
The uptrend in retail sales is expected to continue, though but growth is expected to be slower as signs of weaker sales at major department stores, softer motor vehicle sales, and a drop in new passenger car registrations weigh on overall performance.
On the month, retail sales are projected to rise 0.5 percent rise on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 1.6 percent gain in October and flat growth in September.
Definition
Retail Sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data are part of the Preliminary Report on the Current Survey of Commerce.
Description
Another way to look at consumer spending in addition to the household spending survey is through the retail sales report. This report gives the total value of goods and services sold each month at retail outlets. The preferred number is the change from the previous year. The report serves as a direct gauge of consumption and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is one of the most important leading indicators for the Japanese economy. Increasing sales signal consumer confidence and economic growth, but higher consumption also leads to inflationary pressures.