| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.16% | -0.18% | ||
| Year over Year | 2.7% | 2.1% to 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% |
Highlights
Chinese retail sales rose 2.9 percent on the year in October, easing from growth of 3.0 percent in September and just above the consensus forecast of 2.7 percent. In month-over-month terms, retail sales rose 0.16 percent in October after falling 0.18 percent in September.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy"maintained a generally stable momentum of progress". Although officials again refrained from explicitly referring to trade tensions with the United States, they noted that"there are many unstable and uncertain factors in external environment". Officials provided no specific guidance about whether changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were mixed relative to consensus forecasts. The China's RPI and RPI-P rose from minus 7 and minus 40 to plus14 and minus 10 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in close to consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees sluggish sales growth at 2.7 percent in October from a year ago versus 3.0 percent in September.
Definition
Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.
Description
Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.