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US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
| Actual | Previous | |
| Index | -0.04 | -0.21 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.23 | -0.21 |
Highlights
The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) for October briefly dipped closer to recessionary territory due to the knock-on effects of the Federal government shutdown, but the reading bounced back in November. The underlying trend remains one of consistent modest expansion
The CFNAI is up to minus 0.04 in November after minus 0.42 in October. The four broad categories of indicators that make up the index show 1 positive and 3 negative contributions in November. Among the categories 3 increased and 1 was unchanged.
The Chicago Fed says, Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above 0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above 0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below 0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below 0.35."
Production-related indicators are up to positive 0.08 in November after minus 0.26 in October. Sales, orders, and inventories are unchanged at minus 0.03 in November after minus 0.03 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are up to minus 0.07 in November after minus 0.11 in October. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are up to minus 0.02 in November after minus 0.03 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in November is minus 0.23 compared to minus 0.34 in the prior month.
Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Description
This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.
