| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.6% | 0.5% to 1.0% | -0.2% | -1.5% | -0.5% |
| Year over Year | 2.2% | 2.1% to 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% |
Highlights
Germany's retail sector showed that turnover slipped 0.2 percent in real terms compared with July. This follows a revised 0.5 percent decline in July, pointing to two consecutive months of contraction. Yet, year-over-year data offers a more positive view as sales were 1.8 percent higher in real terms than in August 2024, signalling that consumer demand remains sturdier than the monthly dip suggests.
Food retail provided a modest boost, rising 0.6 percent month-over-month, though sales were still 0.6 percent lower than last year in real terms, evidence of inflation's squeeze on purchasing power. Non-food retail painted the reverse picture, down 1.0 percent from July but up 3.2 percent compared with August 2024, hinting at resilience in discretionary spending.
The sharpest monthly fall came from internet and mail-order trade, down 2.0 percent, yet this channel still recorded an impressive 7.4 percent annual increase, confirming its role as a long-term growth driver.
In essence, August reflects a cautious retail landscape as households are spending, but inflationary pressures and shifting consumption habits continue to shape outcomes. With online trade thriving and non-food sales showing resilience, the sector remains adaptive even in the face of short-term weakness. This latest update takes the RPI to 0 and the RPI-P to 10, meaning that economic activities are now within the consensus of the German economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales expected to bounce back 0.6 percent on the month and to rise 2.2 percent on year in August. Sales fell 1.5 percent on the month in July and were up 1.9 percent on year.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data are compiled from about 27,000 retail businesses and are reported in both nominal and volume terms. Autos are excluded. A very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the initial report which is itself subject to sometimes sizeable revision but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report. However, by excluding the services sector, changes in retail sales data can differ significantly from those in total household spending.