| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -0.2% | -0.5% to -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.3% |
| Year over Year | 2.3% | 2.3% to 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| HICP - M/M | -0.6% | -0.6% to -0.6% | -0.5% | 0.3% |
| HICP - Y/Y | 2.4% | 2.4% to 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
Highlights
Germany's inflation figures for November 2025 suggest a further easing of price pressures, signalling a more stable cost environment for households. Annual CPI inflation held steady at 2.3 percent, moving closer to the European Central Bank's medium-term target, while prices fell by 0.2 percent compared with October. Both the monthly and annual CPI are in line with the consensus forecast for the month.
The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) shows a similar pattern, with annual inflation at 2.6 percent and a sharper monthly decline of 0.5 percent. This downward movement indicates broad-based cooling, potentially linked to softer energy prices, stabilising supply chains, and weak consumer demand.
However, core inflation remains slightly elevated at 2.7 percent, suggesting that underlying domestic price dynamics, such as services inflation and wage-driven costs, have not fully moderated. This persistence may temper expectations of rapid monetary policy easing, even as headline inflation continues to improve.
In essence, the figures suggest an economy moving steadily towards price stability, with the monthly declines hinting at a gradual normalisation of household purchasing power and a more favourable environment for long-term planning. These updates take the RPI to minus 25 and leave the RPI-P at minus 29, suggesting that economic activity continues to lag expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees CPI down 0.2 percent on the month and up 2.3 percent on year in November after increases of 0.3 percent and 2.3 percent on year in October.
Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.
Description
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Germany where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Germany's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.
Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of the state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.