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GB: Labour Market Report
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Claimant Count - M/M | 20.1 | 29.0 | -3.9 | ||
| Claimant Count Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | ||
| ILO Unemployment Rate | 5.1% | 5.1% to 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | |
| Average Earnings - Y/Y | 4.5% | 4.5% to 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
Highlights
The latest UK labour market figures suggest a measured cooling rather than a sharp contraction. Payrolled employment fell by 149,000 (minus 0.5 percent) between October 2024 and October 2025, with a further monthly decline of 22,000 (minus 0.1 percent) in October 2025. Early estimates for November point to a larger annual fall of 171,000 (minus 0.6 percent), bringing total payrolled employees to 30.3 million, although these data remain provisional.
Employment conditions show increasing strain. The employment rate stood at 74.9 percent in AugustOctober 2025, down on the quarter, while unemployment rose to 5.1 percent, above both the previous quarter and last year. Economic inactivity declined to 21.0 percent, suggesting some re-entry into the labour force. Vacancies remained broadly flat, edging down by just 2,000 (minus 0.2 percent) to 729,000.
Workforce jobs fell by 116,000 (minus 0.3 percent) over the quarter, driven by a sharp annual drop of 201,000 (minus 4.7 percent) in self-employment, partly offset by public sector growth of 62,000 (1.0 percent). Nominal earnings rose by 4.6 percent to 4.7 percent, but real pay growth was modest at 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent, indicating limited improvement in living standards. These updates take the RPI and RPI-P to minus 23, meaning that economic activities are lagging expectations in the UK.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The ILO jobless rate expected at 5.1 percent in November versus 5.0 percent in October. Earnings including bonus are seen softer at up 4.5 percent after 4.8 percent in October.
Definition
The Labour Market Report covers a number of key areas of the jobs market. Unemployment is updated on the basis of two separate surveys: the claimant count, which measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, and the more reliable but lagging International Labour Organization's (ILO) measure that excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are both looking and are available for work. Average earnings growth, a key determinant of inflation, is also updated.
Description
The labour market survey gives the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.