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GB: Labour Market Report
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Claimant Count - M/M | 29.0 | 25.8 | 0.4 | ||
| Claimant Count Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | ||
| ILO Unemployment Rate | 4.9% | 4.7% to 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | |
| Average Earnings - Y/Y | 5.0% | 4.9% to 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
Highlights
The UK labour market showed signs of softening in late 2025, with employment levels slipping and wage growth moderating. Estimates indicated that the number of payrolled employees declined by 117,000 (0.4 percent) over the year to September 2025 and by 32,000 (0.1 percent) between August and September, signalling a cooling demand for labour. The early figure for October 2025 pointed to a sharper annual drop of 180,000 (0.6 percent).
The employment rate fell slightly to 75.0 percent in JulySeptember 2025, while unemployment edged up to 5.0 percent, reflecting mild slackening in the job market. Economic inactivity stood at 21.0 percent, unchanged, while the claimant count increased on the month to 1.696 million people. Vacancies remained broadly stable at 723,000, suggesting employers are cautious but not retrenching sharply.
Wage growth persisted, with total pay up 4.8 percent and regular pay 4.6 percent, translating to modest real pay increases of 0.51.0 percent after inflation adjustment. Public sector pay growth outpaced the private sector due to earlier settlements.
Overall, the data portray a labour market that is cooling yet resilient as employment is easing. Still, earnings are holding up, offering a mixed outlook for household incomes and inflationary pressures as we head into 2026. The latest update takes the RPI to 15 and the RPI-P to 34, meaning that economic activities continue to outpace expectations in the UK.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The ILO jobless rate is seen up at 4.9 percent in October versus 4.8 percent in September. Average earnings including bonus are expected up 5.0 percent on year again versus 5.0 percent in September.
Definition
The Labour Market Report covers a number of key areas of the jobs market. Unemployment is updated on the basis of two separate surveys: the claimant count, which measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, and the more reliable but lagging International Labour Organization's (ILO) measure that excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are both looking and are available for work. Average earnings growth, a key determinant of inflation, is also updated.
Description
The labour market survey gives the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.