| Recent History | |||||||
| On Feed | Placements | Marketings | On Feed | ||||
| Month | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | 90+ Days |
| May-25 | 11.376 | 98.5% | 1.887 | 92.2% | 1.758 | 89.9% | 6.531 |
| Jun-25 | 11.443 | 98.8% | 1.441 | 92.1% | 1.707 | 95.6% | 6.267 |
| Jul-25 | 11.124 | 98.4% | 1.598 | 93.9% | 1.749 | 94.3% | 6.348 |
| Aug-25 | 10.922 | 98.4% | 1.780 | 90.1% | 1.571 | 86.4% | 6.162 |
| Sep-25 | 11.080 | 98.9% | 2.021 | 93.7% | 1.632 | 96.1% | 6.416 |
| Oct-25 | 11.418 | 98.4% | 2.039 | 90.0% | 1.697 | 92.0% | 6.172 |
| Nov-25 | 11.706 | 97.8% | - | - | - | - | 6.022 |
| Cattle on Feed Estimates | |||||
| Estimates | |||||
| As Of | Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| On Feed | Oct | 97.7% | 96.7% | 98.6% | 100.0% |
| Placements | Sep | 91.9% | 89.3% | 95.5% | 98.1% |
| Marketings | Sep | 92.9% | 92.0% | 97.0% | 102.0% |
Highlights
The USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed supply as of November 1st at 97.8% of last year, versus the average trade estimate of 97.7% with a range of 96.7% to 98.6%. Placements for October were 90.0%, versus trade expectations of 91.9% and a range of 89.3% to 95.5%. Marketings for October came in at 92.0% of last year, compared with the average estimate of 92.9% and a range of 92.0% to 97.0%.
With on feed numbers coming in essentially right on average guesses, placements 2% below, and marketings slightly below expectations, the report can be considered neutral, with a somewhat bullish bias toward the lower placement number, which was the lowest on record. Unfortunately for the cattle bulls, the report may not be significantly bullish enough to expect a major rally on Monday. However, today's significant recovery bounce in February live cattle off the sharp weakness on the opening, after falling below retracement support and reaching initial downside technical objectives, suggests a potential downside rejection of the Brazil tariff news, and a short covering rally is possible early next week, aided by at least a minor boost from this report.
Definition
This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.
Description
This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.
