| Recent History | |||||||
| On Feed | Placements | Marketings | On Feed | ||||
| Month | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | 90+ Days |
| Jul-24 | 11.304 | 100.5% | 1.702 | 105.8% | 1.855 | 107.7% | 6.213 |
| Aug-24 | 11.095 | 100.3% | 1.976 | 98.7% | 1.819 | 96.5% | 5.958 |
| Sep-24 | 11.198 | 100.6% | 2.156 | 98.1% | 1.698 | 102.0% | 6.123 |
| Oct-24 | 11.600 | 100.0% | 2.266 | 104.4% | 1.845 | 104.7% | 5.932 |
| Nov-24 | 11.966 | 100.1% | 1.796 | 96.3% | 1.725 | 98.5% | 5.733 |
| Dec-24 | 11.982 | 99.7% | 1.642 | 96.7% | 1.742 | 101.0% | 5.930 |
| Jan-25 | 11.823 | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | 6.288 |
| Cattle on Feed Estimates | |||||
| Estimates | |||||
| As Of | Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| On Feed | Jan | 99.7% | 99.1% | 100.8% | 101.7% |
| Placements | Dec | 101.2% | 97.2% | 107.1% | 95.2% |
| Marketings | Dec | 101.4% | 100.9% | 102.0% | 99.0% |
Highlights
Cattle on Feed supply as of January 1st was 99.1% of last year versus the average trade estimate of 99.7%, with a range of 99.1% to 100.8%. Placements for the month of December were 96.7% versus trade expectations of 101.2% and a range of 97.2% to 107.1%. Marketings for December were 101.0% of last year, compared with the average estimate of 101.4% and a range of 100.9% to 102.0%.
The Cold Storage report showed red meat in freezers up 3% from last month but down 5% from last year. Total pounds of beef were 457.28 million pounds, up 4% from last month but down 5% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were 400.398 million pounds, up 2% from last month but down 6% from last year.
The strong cattle market action this week was telegraphing a bullish report, and that's what the market received. Placements were below the lowest estimate, and On Feed numbers were right at the lowest estimate; both were bullish. Marketings were below guesses but within the range. Live cattle and feeder prices rallied sharply over the last 3 sessions and may have priced in some of the bullishness of this report. However, today's close in April live cattle in new all-time highs suggests further upside.
Definition
This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.
Description
This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.
