| Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -0.3% | -0.3% |
Highlights
The Conference Board's US leading indicator index fell 0.3 percent in November, continuing to slide following October's 0.1 percent dip and September's 0.2 percent decline (revised from a 0.3 percent drop). Over the six-month period between May and November 2025, the LEI fell 1.2 percent, a much faster decline than the 2.6 percent plunge over the preceding six-month period.
The Conference Board said weak consumer expectations, as well as new orders, dragged down the LEI throughout 2025. The remaining components of the leading index were relatively muted in November, with the strongest positive contributions coming from labor market data, like initial claims for unemployment insurance and weekly hours worked in manufacturing, the report added.
Despite real GDP growth hitting 4.4% in Q3 2025, the LEI continues to suggest that the US economy will slow in 2026, it warned.
The Conference Board US Coincident Economic Index was up 0.3 percent in November, following a 0.1 percent drop in October and September, respectively. Overall, the CEI is up 0.3 percent in the six-month period ending in November, slowing down from the 0.9 percent growth rate over the previous six-month period.
The CEI's componentspayroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial productionare included in the data used to determine recessions in the United States. They all improved in November after a softer October reading, the report said although it notes that the Conference Board estimated November's manufacturing and trade sales data.
The Conference Board US Lagging Economic Index was up just 0.1 percent in November, erasing a 0.1 percent dip October. The LAG's six-month growth rate fell 0.1 percent over the six-month period ending in November, only partially reversing the 0.9 percent rise for the prior six months.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
* Originally Scheduled for 12/18/2025
Definition
The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly -- and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy -- such as recessions and recoveries. More specifically, it was designed to lead the index of coincident indicators, also now published by The Conference Board. Investors like to see composite indexes because they tell an easy story, although they are not always as useful as they promise. The majority of the components of the leading indicators have been reported earlier in the month so that the composite index doesn't necessarily reveal new information about the economy. Bond investors tend to be less interested in this index than equity investors. Also, the non-financial media tends to give this index more press than it deserves.