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US: Import and Export Prices
Highlights
Import prices were flat in September following a 0.1 percent increase in August, while the consensus forecast in an Econoday survey had centered on a 0.2 percent decline. On a 12-month basis, import prices rose 0.3 percent after declining 0.1 percent, remaining on an upward trend since July and returning to positive territory for the first time since March of this year.
Data collection was completed before the government shutdown, the report pointed out.
Led by lower prices for petroleum and natural gas, import fuel prices decreased 1.5 percent on the month, for a year-over-year decline of 4.0 percent. By contrast, nonfuel import prices were up 0.2 percent on the month. Higher prices for consumer goods and nonfuel industrial supplies and materials offset lower prices for capital goods and foods, feeds, and beverages. Nonfuel prices were up 0.8 percent from a year earlier.
Following the same pattern as import prices, export prices were unchanged on the month after edging up 0.1 percent in August. The 12-month rate picked up to 3.8 percent from 3.2 percent, the fastest pace since 4.6 percent in December 2022.
While agricultural prices increased 0.3 percent, non-agricultural prices were flat. On a year-over-year basis, agricultural prices rose 4.4 percent and nonagricultural prices 3.7 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices seen down 0.2 percent on the month and export prices flat on the month.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Description
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
