| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Annual Rate | 4.000M | 3.900M to 4.100M | 3.93M | 4.03M | 4.04M |
| Month over Month | -2.7% | 0.8% | |||
| Year over Year | 0.0% | -0.7% |
Highlights
Home resales in June fell slightly as home prices continued to rise. There was no relief from lower mortgage rates. The Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage average was as high as 6.86 percent in the June 19 week, matching 6.86% in the May 22 week.
NAR data on sales of existing homes in June show a 2.7 percent decrease to a 3.93 million unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, a little below the consensus of 4.00 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasts. Sales of single-family homes is down 3.0 percent to 3.57 million units while multi-unit sales are unchanged at 360,000 units in June.
The supply of homes for sale is up to 4.7 months' worth in June after 4.6 in May. It is now consistently back to levels consistent with supplies of homes before the pandemic started in 2020. However, supplies of homes remain lean compared to pre-Covid conditions.
The median price of a home resale is $435,300 and is up 2.6 percent month-over-month and up 2.9 percent year-over-year. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted, Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record high home price. Home construction continues to lag population growth. This is holding back first-time home buyers from entering the market. More supply is needed to increase the share of first-time homebuyers in the coming years even though some markets appear to have a temporary oversupply at the moment. Prices have risen for 24 consecutive months. This is good news for current homeowners' equity, but makes it more difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market, Yun said.
Existing homes listed are on the market for an average of 27 days in June, the same as in May, and up from 22 days in June 2024. The market remains brisk. First-time homebuyers account for 30 percent of all sales which is also the same as in May and higher than 38 percent a year ago.
Distressed property sales remain at low levels at 3 percent in June and May, but up from 2 percent in June 2024.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Expected down to an annual 4.00 million unit rate in June from 4.03 million in May. Home resales continue to suffer from poor affordability and consumer uncertainty. National Association of Home Builders reported last week that buyer traffic is extremely weak, worst since the pandemic when things really shut down.
Definition
Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.
Description
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.
Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
