US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Highlights

Manufacturing business activity in the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's district softened further in September when the Richmond Fed's composite manufacturing index fell to minus 17 from minus 7 in August. The consensus forecast in an Econoday survey was minus 10, which was also the lowest estimate.

The index has been in negative territory for seven consecutive months. If not for a slightly positive reading in February 2025, the index has been consistently negative since November 2023.

The shipment index dropped to minus 20 in September from minus 5 in August. New orders fell to minus 15 from minus 6 and employment was down to minus 15 from minus 11.

On the price front, the unadjusted prices paid was virtually unchanged at 7.22 in September, compared with 7.24 in August. The average growth rate for prices received increased slightly to 4.02 from 3.14.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The index is expected to erode to minus 10 in September from minus 7 in August.

Definition

This survey tracks business conditions in the Richmond Fed's manufacturing sector. The headline index is a composite of the new orders, shipments, and employment indexes.

Description

Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the regional Fed surveys, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth so that it won't lead to inflation. These surveys give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report has a big influence on market behavior.

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