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US: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| 20-City Adjusted - M/M | 0.1% | -0.1% to 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Unadjusted - M/M | -0.5% | -0.6% | ||
| 20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y | 1.4% | 1.3% to 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
Highlights
S&P Case-Shiller reports annual house price inflation continuing its downtrend with an increase of 1.4 percent in September versus an already low 1.6 percent in August and 1.8 percent in July, for the 20-city measure. That matches expectations for 1.4 percent.
The 20-city adjusted index is up 0.1 percent on the month in September from August, seasonally adjusted. The unadjusted month on month figure declines 0.5 percent.
Meanwhile the Case-Shiller national index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, sees a 1.3 percent rise in September from a year ago, down from 1.4 percent in August, and well below the overall rate of inflation. All 20 metro areas recorded month-over-month declines before seasonal adjustment in September, underscoring broad declines in housing prices.
The 10-City composite is up 2.0 percent in September from a year ago, down from 2.1 percent in August and 2.3 percent in July.
Chicago shows the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 5.5 percent increase in September followed by New York at 5.2 percent and Boston at 4.1 percent. Tampa is off the most, falling 4.1 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Prices seen up 0.1 percent on month, seasonally adjusted, and up a modest 1.4 percent on year, (versus 1.6 percent in August), as housing price inflation continues to recede.
Definition
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.
Description
Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.
Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
