| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
| Quarter over Quarter | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Year over Year | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Highlights
The preliminary flash data were unrevised in the second look at third quarter GDP. A 0.1 percent quarterly fall matched the earlier print which marked the first decline in total output in three years. Annual growth was cut from 0.5 percent in the previous quarter to just 0.1 percent, its worst outturn since the first quarter of 2021.
The overall quarterly decline reflected contractions in a number of countries, notably Germany (0.1 percent) alongside Ireland (1.8 percent), Finland (0.9 percent) and Austria (0.6 percent). Estonia (minus 0.2 percent) posted a remarkable seventh successive drop. Spain (0.3 percent) achieved moderately respectable growth but France (0.1 percent) only just kept its head above water and Italy (0.0 percent) stagnated.
In sum, there is nothing in the updated third quarter data to impact a very subdued picture of the Eurozone GDP. On current trends, the economy will be in recession by year-end which, while probably only mild, should help the ECB get inflation back down to target. Accordingly, the latest data still mean that official interest rates have likely peaked. They also put the Eurozone RPI at minus 3 and the RPI-P at minus 4, both measures showing overall economic activity essentially matching market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
No revisions are expected to the preliminary flash data leaving a 0.1 percent quarterly contraction and a 0.1 percent annual growth rate.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. There are two preliminary estimates which are based on only partial data. The first is the preliminary flash, introduced in April 2016 and limited to just quarterly and annual growth statistics for the region as a whole. This is issued close to the end of the month immediately after the reference period. The second flash report, released about two weeks later, expands on the first to include growth figures for most member states but still provides no information on the GDP expenditure components.