| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -0.2% | -0.2% to -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Year over Year | 2.3% | 2.3% to 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| HICP - M/M | -0.5% | -0.5% to -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| HICP - Y/Y | 2.6% | 2.6% to 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
Highlights
Germany's inflation landscape in November revealed that headline CPI held steady at 2.3 percent year-over-year, while prices fell by 0.2 percent month-over-month, matching the consensus forecasts and October's rate. The harmonised index tells a similar story, matching the consensus forecasts and October's rate, pointing to subdued short-term price movement. Stability at the headline level masks divergent trends underneath.
Energy prices continued to ease, falling 0.1 percent compared with last year, supported by lower electricity and district heating costs, although motor fuel and heating oil became more expensive. Food inflation remained below average at 1.2 percent, with notable declines in staples such as butter, oils and fresh vegetables, despite sharp increases in confectionery and meat prices. Month-over-month, seasonal falls in air fares and holiday packages pulled inflation down, while rising heating oil and vegetable prices created upward pressures.
Core inflation, however, remained higher at 2.7 percent, driven by services, where prices rose by 3.5 percent year-over-year. Strong increases in transport services, social care, and hospitality illustrate persistent domestic cost pressures. Goods prices rose by a modest 1.1 percent, with marked increases in coffee, soft drinks and tobacco offset by cheaper household appliances and communication equipment.
Overall, Germany enters the end of 2025 with inflation steady but still shaped by strong service-sector price dynamics. These latest updates leaves the RPI at 21 but takes the RPI-P to 30, meaning that economic activities continue to outpace expectations within the German economy.
Energy prices continued to ease, falling 0.1 percent compared with last year, supported by lower electricity and district heating costs, although motor fuel and heating oil became more expensive. Food inflation remained below average at 1.2 percent, with notable declines in staples such as butter, oils and fresh vegetables, despite sharp increases in confectionery and meat prices. Month-over-month, seasonal falls in air fares and holiday packages pulled inflation down, while rising heating oil and vegetable prices created upward pressures.
Core inflation, however, remained higher at 2.7 percent, driven by services, where prices rose by 3.5 percent year-over-year. Strong increases in transport services, social care, and hospitality illustrate persistent domestic cost pressures. Goods prices rose by a modest 1.1 percent, with marked increases in coffee, soft drinks and tobacco offset by cheaper household appliances and communication equipment.
Overall, Germany enters the end of 2025 with inflation steady but still shaped by strong service-sector price dynamics. These latest updates leaves the RPI at 21 but takes the RPI-P to 30, meaning that economic activities continue to outpace expectations within the German economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees no revision from the flash at minus 0.2 percent on month and up 2.3 percent on year for the November final for CPI.
Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.
Description
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Germany where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Germany's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.
Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of the state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of the state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
