| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 98.0 | 97.6 to 98.2 | 99.0 | 98.2 |
Highlights
The NFIB small business optimism index remains in a narrow range around the 52-year average of 98 for the seventh month in a row. The November index is up 0.8 point to 99.0 compared to the consensus of 98.0 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. Readings remain consistent with an uncertain outlook despite continued moderate expansion. The uncertainty index is up 3 points to 91 in November. The uncertainty index has been elevated for the last 18 months.
Six of ten index components are higher in November, three are lower, and one is unchanged. The largest component increase is 9 points in expectations of higher sales to 15 percent while the largest downward move is 5 points to 15 percent in expectations for the economy to improve.
The index components related to the labor market shows current job openings up a scant 1 point to 33 percent in November and remain in the low to mid-30's since April. Plans to increase employment are up 4 points to 19 percent in November, the highest since 19 percent in December 2024.
Among survey respondents, 21 percent cite quality of labor as their single most important problem in November. Small businesses face competition from bigger companies in attracting and retaining workers with the right skills and/or experience.
Six of ten index components are higher in November, three are lower, and one is unchanged. The largest component increase is 9 points in expectations of higher sales to 15 percent while the largest downward move is 5 points to 15 percent in expectations for the economy to improve.
The index components related to the labor market shows current job openings up a scant 1 point to 33 percent in November and remain in the low to mid-30's since April. Plans to increase employment are up 4 points to 19 percent in November, the highest since 19 percent in December 2024.
Among survey respondents, 21 percent cite quality of labor as their single most important problem in November. Small businesses face competition from bigger companies in attracting and retaining workers with the right skills and/or experience.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The index is expected down again at 98.0 in November after a soft 98.2 in October and 98.8 in September.
Definition
The small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of 10 seasonally adjusted components based on the following questions: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
Description
Small businesses are responsible for a majority of new job creation and the NFIB focuses on this sector of the economy. The direction of the health of small businesses can portend changes in the stock market - especially small caps.
