| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.5% | 0.5% to 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Year over Year | 0.9% | 0.9% to 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
Highlights
Exports were up 3.2 percent during the reporting quarter, boosted by transportation equipment, after a tepid second quarter in which they grew 0.3 percent. Import growth slowed modestly in the third quarter to 1.3 percent from 1.5 percent in the second. Net trade contributed 0.6 percent growth. At the same time, inventories were a drag, subtracting 0.4 percent from the expansion.
Excluding inventories, there was an uptick in domestic demand in the third quarter, which contributed 0.3 percent to overall growth after 0.2 percent in the second quarter.
Household continue to remain cautious, with spending up a marginal 0.1 percent in the third quarter, thereby matching the second quarter pace. Although consumers spent 1.0 percent less on food products, they shelled out 1.3 percent more on energy in the third quarter, a sharp reversal from the 2.3 percent decline in the second quarter.
The data suggest that consumers are dipping into savings to fund their spending, with the household savings rate falling to 18.4 percent in the quarter after 18.7 percent in the second. Conversely, government expenditures were higher, growing 0.5 percent in the second and third quarters.
Today's results show the economy is on mildly solid footing, with increased domestic demand encouraging. Exports were also a positive sign, but it remains to be seen if there is robustness beyond the transportation sector.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.