| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 3.1% | 1.8% to 3.5% | 1.3% | -4.3% | -3.7% |
| Year over Year | -1.1% | -2.0% to 0.6% | -1.0% | -4.2% | -3.7% |
Highlights
Industrial production in September 2025 showed a modest recovery, rising by 1.3 percent compared with August after calendar and seasonal adjustments. This improvement comes after a sharp contraction in the previous month, where output fell by a revised 3.7 percent. However, the year-over-year picture remains weak, with production down 1.0 percent, reflecting ongoing challenges across the sector.
The rebound was driven mainly by the automotive industry, which surged by 12.3 percent following holiday-related shutdowns and production shifts in August. Strong performance in computer, electronic, and optical products (5.1 percent) also supported growth, although a decline in machinery and equipment (minus 1.1 percent) dampened momentum. Capital goods production rose by 3.8 percent, signalling renewed investment activity, while both consumer and intermediate goods edged up by 0.2 percent.
Outside manufacturing, energy production increased by 1.3 percent, but construction output slipped by 0.9 percent, suggesting continued weakness in building activity. Energy-intensive industries saw only marginal monthly growth (0.1 percent) and remain negative over the quarter, partly due to cost pressures.
Indeed, the latest updates suggest a cautious rebound as output volatility persists and quarterly comparisons still indicate contraction, pointing to an industrial sector stabilising but not yet fully recovering. These latest updates take the RPI to 8 and the RPI-P to 1, meaning that economic activities continue to perform within expectations in Germany.
The rebound was driven mainly by the automotive industry, which surged by 12.3 percent following holiday-related shutdowns and production shifts in August. Strong performance in computer, electronic, and optical products (5.1 percent) also supported growth, although a decline in machinery and equipment (minus 1.1 percent) dampened momentum. Capital goods production rose by 3.8 percent, signalling renewed investment activity, while both consumer and intermediate goods edged up by 0.2 percent.
Outside manufacturing, energy production increased by 1.3 percent, but construction output slipped by 0.9 percent, suggesting continued weakness in building activity. Energy-intensive industries saw only marginal monthly growth (0.1 percent) and remain negative over the quarter, partly due to cost pressures.
Indeed, the latest updates suggest a cautious rebound as output volatility persists and quarterly comparisons still indicate contraction, pointing to an industrial sector stabilising but not yet fully recovering. These latest updates take the RPI to 8 and the RPI-P to 1, meaning that economic activities continue to perform within expectations in Germany.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for output to rebound by 3.1 percent on the month in September after falling by 4.3 percent in August. On year, the call is minus 1.1 percent versus minus 4.2 percent in August.
Definition
Industrial production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Data are collected from companies in the sector with fifty or more employees and include mining and quarrying, manufacturing, energy and, in contrast to its Eurozone counterpart, construction.
Description
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
Like the manufacturing orders data, the production index has the advantage of being available in a timely manner giving a more current view of business activity. Those responding to the data collection survey account for about 80 percent of total industrial production. Like the PPI and the orders data, construction is excluded.
This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
Like the manufacturing orders data, the production index has the advantage of being available in a timely manner giving a more current view of business activity. Those responding to the data collection survey account for about 80 percent of total industrial production. Like the PPI and the orders data, construction is excluded.
This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
