| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production - M/M | -0.2% | -0.2% to -0.1% | -2.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Industrial Production - Y/Y | -0.9% | -1.4% to -0.9% | -2.5% | -0.7% | -0.5% |
| Manufacturing Output - M/M | -0.3% | -1.4% to -0.9% | -1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Manufacturing Output - Y/Y | -1.4% | -1.5% to -0.8% | -2.2% | -0.8% | -0.7% |
Highlights
The September 2025 production figures reveal a sharp loss of momentum in the UK's industrial sector. Monthly production output fell by 2.0 percent, reversing August's brief uplift and extending the weakness seen in July. This decline was broad-based, affecting all four major production sectors. Manufacturing dropped by 1.7 percent, while electricity and gas, and mining and quarrying, each fell by 3.4 percent, signalling reduced industrial activity and possibly lower energy demand. Water supply and sewerage also slipped by 0.7 percent, reinforcing the breadth of the downturn.
The most striking element is the dramatic 28.6 percent fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. This single subsector removed 1.29 percentage points from total production output, demonstrating its central role in the UK's industrial landscape. Supply chain pressures, demand shifts, or production stoppages may explain this severe contraction.
With seven of thirteen manufacturing subsectors declining, the data suggest systemic challenges rather than isolated disruptions. Overall, the figures point to a production sector under strain, weighing on the wider economy and raising concerns about industrial resilience as the year progresses. This latest update takes the RPI and RPI-P to minus 8, meaning that economic activities are within expectations of the UK economy.
The most striking element is the dramatic 28.6 percent fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. This single subsector removed 1.29 percentage points from total production output, demonstrating its central role in the UK's industrial landscape. Supply chain pressures, demand shifts, or production stoppages may explain this severe contraction.
With seven of thirteen manufacturing subsectors declining, the data suggest systemic challenges rather than isolated disruptions. Overall, the figures point to a production sector under strain, weighing on the wider economy and raising concerns about industrial resilience as the year progresses. This latest update takes the RPI and RPI-P to minus 8, meaning that economic activities are within expectations of the UK economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Output is expected to fall back by 0.2 percent in September on the month after rising 0.4 percent in August. Manufacturing is expected down 0.3 percent after rising 0.7 percent in August.
Definition
Industrial production measures the physical output of the mining and quarrying, manufacturing, gas and electric, and water supply and sewerage sectors. Manufacturing is seen as the best guide to underlying developments as the other subsectors can be highly volatile on a short-term basis. Estimates are largely based on a monthly business survey of roughly 6,000 companies.
Description
Industrial and manufacturing outputs are watched carefully by market participants despite the decline in the importance of manufacturing in the UK economy. Manufacturing output is the preferred number rather than industrial production which can be unduly influenced by electrical generation and weather. The manufacturing index is widely used as a short-term economic indicator in its own right by both the Bank of England and the UK government. Market analysts also focus on manufacturing and its sub-sectors to get insight on industry performance.
Industrial production accounts for less than 16 percent of the economy within which the key manufacturing sector is worth about ten percentage points. Total manufacturing is divided into thirteen sub-sectors, ranging from food, drink and tobacco through chemicals and chemical products to electronics and transport equipment. Consequently, this report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
Industrial production accounts for less than 16 percent of the economy within which the key manufacturing sector is worth about ten percentage points. Total manufacturing is divided into thirteen sub-sectors, ranging from food, drink and tobacco through chemicals and chemical products to electronics and transport equipment. Consequently, this report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
