Retail activity in the euro area showed signs of stagnation in September 2025, with retail trade volume edging down by 0.1 percent month-over-month for a second consecutive month. The decline reflects weak short-term consumer momentum, driven primarily by reduced spending on non-food items and a sharper fall in demand for automotive fuel, which dropped by 1.0 percent. Meanwhile, spending on food, drinks and tobacco remained stable, suggesting that households are prioritising essential goods amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

On an annual basis, however, retail performance appears more resilient. Compared with September 2024, overall sales rose by 1.0 percent, supported by stronger demand for non-food products, which increased by 1.4 percent. This indicates consumers are cautiously returning to discretionary spending categories over the longer horizon. By contrast, fuel sales across specialised outlets continued to decline year-over-year, reflecting potential behavioural shifts, higher fuel prices or increased transport efficiency.

In essence, the latest updates highlight a mixed retail landscape, characterised by a slight downward monthly momentum and modest annual growth. While essential categories underpin stability, persistent weakness in fuel-related spending and pressure on non-food segments point to ongoing consumer sensitivity to economic conditions. The latest update takes the RPI to 28 and the RPI-P to 23, meaning that economic activities continue to stay ahead of expectations in the euro area.

Sales expected up 0.2 percent on the month and 1.1 percent on year.

Retail sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. Eurozone retail sales are reported monthly, in volume terms and exclude autos and motorcycles. A limited sector breakdown is presented in the first release but much more detail is available in the following period's release.

Retail sales are important indicators of domestic consumer demand and are monitored closely by analysts as an important input to GDP. If you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The data are available in both value and volume measures although the press release deals only with volume. In addition to the total, the initial report provides a limited breakdown that separately identifies food, drink and tobacco, and (excluding automotive fuel) non-food products. A more comprehensive dataset is only available with the following month's release. Unlike the U.S. and Canada, auto sales are not included in the retail sales data.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.