ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Level58.458.4 to 58.459.257.7

Highlights

The S&P Global India manufacturing PMI indicates activity in the sector strengthened further in October, with the headline index increasing to 59.2 from 57.7 in September. This is below the flash estimate of 58.4. Unlike other surveys across the region, the survey continues to show relatively little impact from global trade tensions. Less timely industrial production data published last week showed stronger growth in the manufacturing sector in September, with October data scheduled to be published late-November.

PMI survey respondents reported stronger growth in both output and new orders in October but a smaller increase in new export orders. The survey also shows payrolls were increased at a steady pace and its measure of business confidence also remained strong, with respondents citing optimism about the impact of recent tax relief measures announced by the government. Respondents reported a smaller increase in input costs but steady growth in selling prices, with the latter increasing again at the sharpest pace in nearly twelve years.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The consensus sees no change from the flash at 58.4 for the final, showing robust expansion.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a joint publication by Markit and the Nikkei media organisation and provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month. The report uses information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 400 companies in eight broad categories. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting).

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic survey data such as the Markit PMIs, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The Markit PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.

The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 500 manufacturing companies. The panel is stratified geographically and by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) group, based on industry contribution to Indian GDP. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month based on data collected mid-month. For each of the indicators the 'Report' shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of higher/better responses and lower/worse responses, and the 'diffusion' index. This index is the sum of the positive responses plus a half of those responding 'the same'.
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