| Actual | Previous | Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claimant Count - M/M | 25.8 | 17.4 | -2.0 | ||
| Claimant Count Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | 4.3% | |||
| ILO Unemployment Rate | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% to 4.7% | |
| Average Earnings - Y/Y | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% to 4.8% |
Highlights
The latest UK labour market report shows that payrolled employees fell by 93,000 over the year to August 2025, with only a modest monthly rise of 10,000, reflecting subdued hiring momentum. The early estimate for September 2025 showed a further 100,000 fall in employment, suggesting ongoing labour market softening. Employment between June and August stood at 75.1 percent, slightly down from the figure recorded between March and May, while unemployment rose to 4.8 percent, indicating that some job losses have yet to be absorbed. Economic inactivity remained steady at 21.0 percent, suggesting limited re-engagement of those outside the workforce.
Vacancies declined for the 39th consecutive period, signalling persistent employer caution across industries. Despite weakening job creation, wage growth remained relatively strong at 4.7 percent for regular pay and 5.0 percent including bonuses, with higher increases in the public sector. Adjusted for inflation, real wage growth was modest at 0.6 percent (including owner occupiers' housing costs) and 0.9 percent (excluding owner occupiers' housing costs) for regular pay, reflecting limited purchasing power improvement.
The Claimant Count rose slightly to 1.692 million, and 15,000 working days were lost to industrial disputes, highlighting ongoing worker unrest. In essence, these updates suggest a cooling labour market with cautious optimism supported by moderate pay growth but continued structural fragility. These updates take the RPI and RPI-P to 4, meaning that economic activities are now within the expectations of the UK economy.
Vacancies declined for the 39th consecutive period, signalling persistent employer caution across industries. Despite weakening job creation, wage growth remained relatively strong at 4.7 percent for regular pay and 5.0 percent including bonuses, with higher increases in the public sector. Adjusted for inflation, real wage growth was modest at 0.6 percent (including owner occupiers' housing costs) and 0.9 percent (excluding owner occupiers' housing costs) for regular pay, reflecting limited purchasing power improvement.
The Claimant Count rose slightly to 1.692 million, and 15,000 working days were lost to industrial disputes, highlighting ongoing worker unrest. In essence, these updates suggest a cooling labour market with cautious optimism supported by moderate pay growth but continued structural fragility. These updates take the RPI and RPI-P to 4, meaning that economic activities are now within the expectations of the UK economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The ILO jobless rate is seen unchanged at 4.7 percent in September from August. Average earnings including bonus are expected up 4.8 percent on year versus 4.7 percent in August.
Definition
The Labour Market Report covers a number of key areas of the jobs market. Unemployment is updated on the basis of two separate surveys: the claimant count, which measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, and the more reliable but lagging International Labour Organization's (ILO) measure that excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are both looking and are available for work. Average earnings growth, a key determinant of inflation, is also updated.
Description
The labour market survey gives the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.
The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.
