| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.1% to 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Year over Year | 4.0% | 3.9% to 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Core CPI - M/M | 0.0% | 0.3% | ||
| Core CPI - Y/Y | 3.5% | 3.6% |
Highlights
Transport costs exerted the strongest upward influence on inflation, suggesting persistent fuel and travel-related expenses, while lower prices in recreation, culture, and food provided balancing relief for households. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as energy and food, showed a slight cooling as core CPI dipped to 3.5 percent and core CPIH to 3.9 percent. Goods inflation edged up modestly to 2.9 percent, whereas services inflation remained elevated at 4.7 percent for CPI and 4.9 percent for CPIH, emphasizing ongoing price rigidity in the service sector.
Indeed, the latest updates indicate that inflationary pressures have plateaued rather than receded. This reflects a mixed environment where easing core prices contrast with persistently high service costs. This latest update takes the RPI to minus 13 and the RPI-P to 1, meaning that economic activities are underperforming compared to expectations in the UK.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
For monetary policy, the Bank of England generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index which is calculated using the European Union's Eurostat methodology so that inflation can be compared across EU member states.