| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.0% to 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 3-Months over 3-Months | 0.2% | 0.2% to 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Highlights
The UK economy in July 2025 showed signs of slowing momentum. Real GDP rose by just 0.2 percent in the three months to July, down from 0.3 percent in June and 0.6 percent in May, suggesting a gradual easing of growth. Services remained the key driver, expanding 0.4 percent, reflecting their dominant role in supporting overall output. Construction also added to growth with a 0.6 percent rise, though this marked a slowdown from the stronger pace seen earlier in the summer.
In contrast, production output weighed heavily on the economy, contracting 1.3 percent over the three-month period after a smaller decline in June, signalling persistent weakness in manufacturing and industrial activity.
On a monthly basis, GDP was flat in July, highlighting fragile short-term performance. While services and construction managed modest gains of 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent respectively, these were overshadowed by a sharp 0.9 percent drop in production.
In essence, the figures show that services and construction provided resilience, but sustained declines in production highlight vulnerabilities. The zero monthly growth in July highlights the fragility of the recovery, with sectoral imbalances continuing to dampen economic progress, taking the RPI to 11 and the RPI-P to 5, meaning that economic activities adjusted for prices are within the expectations of the UK economy.
In contrast, production output weighed heavily on the economy, contracting 1.3 percent over the three-month period after a smaller decline in June, signalling persistent weakness in manufacturing and industrial activity.
On a monthly basis, GDP was flat in July, highlighting fragile short-term performance. While services and construction managed modest gains of 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent respectively, these were overshadowed by a sharp 0.9 percent drop in production.
In essence, the figures show that services and construction provided resilience, but sustained declines in production highlight vulnerabilities. The zero monthly growth in July highlights the fragility of the recovery, with sectoral imbalances continuing to dampen economic progress, taking the RPI to 11 and the RPI-P to 5, meaning that economic activities adjusted for prices are within the expectations of the UK economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Growth seen at a modest 0.1 percent on the month in July after a hefty 0.4 percent in June.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The monthly report is based on output data only as the income and expenditure series are not available.
Description
GDP covers all aspects of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. GDP contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. However, the monthly report is quite limited and only provides data on the main output sectors. More detailed information is available in the quarterly reports.
