Highlights
Ishiba is in the midst of high-pressure talks with the US aimed at heading off crippling tariffs on Japanese goods, especially autos. In his weakened position, Ishiba or any successor is seen as more likely to pursue tax cuts and other expansive fiscal policies along with more restrictive immigration policies. JGB yields rose ahead of the election on the expectation of this outcome. Ishiba was pursuing a more conservative fiscal policy as Japan faces the limits of its borrowing ability. Now, as with the US, the market sees significant fiscal expansion and debt issuance coming. On trade, a weaker Ishiba also plays a poorer hand in talks with President Trump, and presumably will have more trouble getting the Diet to approve any agreement, if there is one.