Highlights
Heading into the weekend, focus has returned squarely to President Trump's trade war. The president has threatened to restore tariff levels to their highs from April 2 Liberation Day for countries that don't reach a new agreement with the US by July 8, and letters are supposedly going out today, Friday, to countries informing them of their new tariff levels. Given the paucity of agreements on even the skeleton of a trade deal (UK, Vietnam), that's a lot of action needed between now and Tuesday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said roughly 100 countries will see a basic tax of 10 percent on their exports to the US and that lots of deals will come in at the last minute. It's not clear how authoritative Bessent's remarks are or whether the president will decide to announce something different on his social media platform, his preferred means of setting policy. A 10 percent rate would be a lot less than Trump threatened back on April 2 for many big trading partners.
Markets have been preparing for the next unpredictable round of tariff news by selling dollars, primarily against the euro, yen and Swiss franc, and that trend is likely to continue. Thursday's dollar selloff occurred despite rising US bond yields after stronger than expected employment figures. Ongoing dollar weakness also reflects the market view that the as-expected passage of the president's sprawling tax and spending measure represents another huge negative for the US fiscal position and a blow to the appeal of US assets. On the other hand, the bill does raise the debt ceiling, which removes that overhang from the list of immediate worries.
Markets have been preparing for the next unpredictable round of tariff news by selling dollars, primarily against the euro, yen and Swiss franc, and that trend is likely to continue. Thursday's dollar selloff occurred despite rising US bond yields after stronger than expected employment figures. Ongoing dollar weakness also reflects the market view that the as-expected passage of the president's sprawling tax and spending measure represents another huge negative for the US fiscal position and a blow to the appeal of US assets. On the other hand, the bill does raise the debt ceiling, which removes that overhang from the list of immediate worries.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
