ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
20-City Adjusted - M/M-0.3%-0.3%
20-City Unadjusted - M/M0.4%0.7%
20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y2.8%3.4%3.0%2.8% to 3.3%

Highlights

Case-Shiller's latest report shows house price inflation slowed further in May, continuing its downtrend. The 20-city home price index declined 0.3 percent on the month in May, seasonally adjusted, and the unadjusted annual rate of increase eased to 2.8 percent from April's 3.4 percent. The consensus was 3.0 percent for the year-on-year figure in May.

No seaonally adjusted month on month home prices showed a gain of 0.4 percent in May from April.

New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.4 percent increase in May, followed by Chicago and Detroit with annual increases of 6.1 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.4 percent.

The ongoing decline in housing prices must be pleasing to Federal Reserve officials in their anti-inflation fight. It appears to be offsetting somewhat the upward pressure on goods prices flowing from rising US tariffs.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Home prices are seen up 3.0 percent on year in May versus 3.4 percent in April as housing price inflation trends down.

Definition

The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.

Description

Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.

Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
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