ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Rate2.5%2.4% to 2.5%2.5%2.5%

Highlights

Japanese payrolls posted their 28th straight rise on year in November amid widespread labor shortages. The unemployment rate stood at 2.5% after ticking up to 2.5% in October and improving to an eight-month low of 2.4% in September from 2.5% in August. It was in line with the median economist forecast of 2.5%.

Job losses and retirements rose a seasonally adjusted 2.6% on the month after rising 5.4% the previous month while the number of people who quit for other positions rebounded 5.7% (vs. -5.4% in October). Those gains were offset by a sharp 6.4% decline in the number of those who began looking for work and thus were counted as being unemployed (vs. -4.1%).

Employment rose 340,000 on the year to 68.14 million in November after rising 420,000 in October. The number of unemployed fell 50,000 to 1.64 million for the fourth consecutive drop after falling 50,000 the previous month. It remains the lowest since 1.63 million recorded in January 2024. The year-on-year job creation was led by"other services," education/learning support service provides, information telecommunications firms and the medical and welfare category. Manufacturing and construction continued to shed payrolls while jobs at hotels/restaurants fell after months of gains.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 28th straight rise on year in November amid widespread labor shortages. The unemployment rate is forecast at 2.5% after ticking up to 2.5% in October and improving to an eight-month low of 2.4% in September from 2.5% in August.

The government continues to describe employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement" in its latest monthly economic report.

Definition

The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.

Description

The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.

By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
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