Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.1% | -0.2% to 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
Year over Year | 2.6% | 2.3% to 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
Core CPI - M/M | 0.0% | 0.4% | ||
Core CPI - Y/Y | 3.6% | 3.4% to 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% |
Highlights
Transport emerged as the most significant contributor to but housing and household services added further upward pressure as did alcohol and tobacco and miscellaneous goods and services. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items like energy and food, increased from 3.3 percent to 3.5 percent while services were flat at 5.0 percent. A, at 0.4 percent, the goods rate moved back above zero for the first time since March.
These trends highlight persistent inflationary pressures across essential sectors, suggesting broader economic challenges in curbing price increases, particularly in the key services sector. As such, the data increase the likelihood of no change from the Bank of England tomorrow. Today's update takes the RPI to 1 and the RPI-P to minus 1, meaning that economic activity in general is performing much as forecast.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
For monetary policy, the Bank of England generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index which is calculated using the European Union's Eurostat methodology so that inflation can be compared across EU member states.